THE GENERIC MEASURE – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  As the president prepares to deliver his State of the Union message – by being sure the teleprompter is plugged in – a new poll shows Republicans with a slight advantage in this year's generic congressional ballot.  From Fox:

At the start of the midterm election year, Republican candidates hold a slim two-percentage point advantage when voters are asked about their preference for Congress.

Forty-three percent of voters would back the Republican in their House district if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate, according to the latest Fox News poll.

Click here to read the poll results.

The difference comes from independent voters, who lean toward the Republican candidate over the Democrat by 32-26 percent. Many independents, however, are undecided (28 percent) or would vote for a non-major party candidate (14 percent). Just one voter in five (20 percent) describes themselves as an independent in the poll.

Large majorities of Democrats (84 percent) and Republicans (84 percent) would support their party’s respective candidate.

Views on the generic party vote have shifted back-and-forth in recent months. In October, 45 percent of voters backed the Democratic candidate and 37 percent the Republican. In December it was tied at 43 percent each.

COMMENT:  Given the mess the country is in, and the fact that this is the sixth year of a failed Democratic presidency, you'd think Republicans would be further ahead.  The fact that they're not should serve as a warning.  We cannot win simply by depending on the other side to make mistakes.  We have to have a winning program of our own, carried by attractive candidates.

Also, the Democratic Party is now based on a group mentality that is very hard to break.   Many Democrats continue to support Obama not because he's actually helped the nation, but because of who he is.  They will support him to the bitter end.

And...we still have no reliable way to measure the impact of press bias, which is as present today as it was when the press massively aided Barack Obama in 2008. 

This should be an easy year for Republicans.  It will not be.  Get ready for a food fight.  And remember, Hillary waits in the wings, and her press claque will be circling around her, which means, among other things, advancing the interests of her party.

January 28, 2014